Original Article
A Fargana, A Arifutzzaman, A A Rakhimov
EUROPEAN J MED ED TE, Volume 14, Issue 3, Article No: em2109
ABSTRACT
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which emerged from Wuhan, China, is now a pandemic, affecting across the globe. Bangladesh also is experiencing the rapid growth of COVID-19 infection and death cases started from 8th March 2020. The purpose of providing a simple yet effective explanatory model for prediction of the future evolution of the contagion and verification of the effectiveness of the containment and lockdown measures in Bangladesh. In this study, using a modified SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) model a forecast is generated to predict the trends of COVID-19 cases in Bangladesh. The epidemic model was proposed to accommodate the effects of lockdown and individual based precautionary measures. Data has been taken and analyzed for before and after the movement control order (MCO) and during the MCO period. Modified SIR model in this work offers us an idea how the outbreak would progress based on the current data. It also has estimated that, the peak in terms of the number of infected cases will start from last of June 2020. For the total population (100%) the model gets the peaks at 214875 (infected cases) and 7743 (death cases). For the 90% population, the model shows the peaks at 244356 (infected cases) and 9100 (death cases). Analysis revealed that the lockdown and recommended individual hygiene can slow down the outbreak but unable to eradicate the disease from the society. With the current infection and death rate and existing level of personal precautionary the number of infected individuals will be increasing.
Keywords: COVID-19, modified SIR model, infection rate, death rate, growth rate, basic reproduction number, lockdown effect, Bangladesh
Review Article
Ogechi Christiana Obi, Desmond Ajuruchi Odoh
EUROPEAN J MED ED TE, Volume 14, Issue 3, Article No: em2110
ABSTRACT
To mitigate the spread of Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), many efforts have been made including the adoption of non-pharmaceutical measures such as hand hygiene, wearing of face mask, and social distancing. Sadly, the absence of symptoms in some SARS-CoV-2 carriers has impeded the success of these current interventions, and the number of COVID-19 cases continues to increase globally. Understanding the impact and pattern of transmission by presymptomatic and asymptomatic cases is crucial to the management of the disease. We aimed to review the transmission or spread of COVID-19, to provide insight into the impact of these silent spreaders, and inform public health policymaking. A systematic review of published articles was conducted. PubMed, Google Scholar, and Science Direct were searched for articles published in the English Language from January to July 2020. A total of 20 articles were found eligible for the review based on the predetermined inclusion and exclusion criteria. 17 articles, of which 13 were case reports, 1 serial interval report, 2 investigational reports, and 1 modeling study, provided evidence of asymptomatic and presymptomatic transmission. 3 articles reported on the quantitative contribution of asymptomatic and presymptomatic transmission. Evidence provided in the literature is not sufficient to elucidate the impact and relative contribution of asymptomatic and presymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 carriers on the spread of the disease. Strengthening of the current non-pharmaceutical measures or better still adoption of other innovative approaches is crucial to combating COVID-19 as far as presymptomatic and asymptomatic cases are concerned.
Keywords: asymptomatic, COVID-19, presymptomatic, SARS-CoV-2, transmission
Original Article
Merve Erkan, Ali Ahmetoglu, Aysegul Cansu, Murat Erkut
EUROPEAN J MED ED TE, Volume 14, Issue 3, Article No: em2111
ABSTRACT
Objective: To investigate the frequency of sarcopenia in cirrhotic patients, the correlation of sarcopenia with conventional prognostic scores and its relationship with mortality by measuring the psoas muscle area at the level of mid-3rd lumbar (L3) vertebra on computed tomography (CT) scan.
Materials and Methods: We included 229 cirrhotic patients who had undergone abdominal CT scan for hepatocellular carcinoma screening. A control group was formed in 204 healthy individuals who had undergone abdominal computed tomography examination due to trauma. 1- and 3-year follow-up results were recorded. Cross-sectional areas of the right and left psoas muscles were calculated in axial sections passing through the level of the mid-L3 in CT images. The cases with two standard deviations under the mean of the total psoas muscle area in control group were evaluated as sarcopenic.
Results: Sarcopenia was detected in 39.7% of 229 cirrhotic patients. While a statistically significant difference was detected in the Child-Pugh prognostic score between cirrhotic patients with and without sarcopenia, there was a modest difference in the MELD score. The percentage of cirrhotic patients with sarcopenia who passed during 1- and 3- year follow-ups (28.6% and 40.7%, respectively) were significantly higher than non-sarcopenic patients (9.4% and 24.6%, respectively).
Conclusion: The findings obtained in this study suggest that psoas muscle atrophy shown by CT scan image at the level of the mid-L3 vertebra has predictive value for mortality in cirrhotic patients.
Keywords: Cirrhosis, sarcopenia, mortality, computed tomography, psoas muscle area